WMO: El Nino may peak at record strength in December

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has cautioned that El Niño is gathering strength and could peak in December, potentially ranking among the most powerful events recorded since 1950, with grave implications for global temperatures, rainfall patterns and extreme weather.

According to the WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, forecasts drawn from a consensus of models at 13 leading national and international climate monitoring centres indicate that El Niño will intensify before reaching its projected climax. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon was already exceptionally strong and was almost certain to persist into February 2027. Its repercussions could include above-average temperatures across much of the globe, together with heightened risks of protracted droughts and flash floods. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific stood 1.6°C above average in June and climbed to 2.5°C in August, while the October-December period could register an anomaly of around 3.7°C.

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El Niño arises when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become abnormally warm, typically every two to seven years, and can reshape weather patterns worldwide. Saulo explained that the phenomenon releases heat stored in the oceans into the atmosphere, a particular cause for concern because the oceans are already exceptionally warm owing to human-driven global warming. Should the latest forecast materialise, the anomaly would surpass the previous record of 2.6°C set during the 2015-16 El Niño. Consequently, the WMO has warned that the ensuing impacts could heighten pressure on agriculture, food security, ecosystems and economies, with drought-related crop losses and livestock deaths already reported in parts of Central America.